French researcher: Taliban could remain in power for another five years without an organized domestic opposition
Jean-Luc Racine, an emeritus research director at France’s National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS), says the Taliban regime could remain in power over the next five years in the absence of an organized domestic opposition and significant external pressure.
According to Racine, the National Resistance Front (NRF), led by Ahmad Massoud, does not have the military capacity to play a decisive role in bringing the current situation to an end.
Speaking to the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), he also said that more “pragmatic” figures within the Taliban, including Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban’s deputy prime minister for economic affairs, have limited influence compared with the hardline faction based in Kandahar.
He added that the “ultraconservative” line directed from Kandahar is likely to continue over the next five years.
The researcher also described Afghanistan’s economic situation as difficult. He noted that the country ranks 181st on the Human Development Index and said that economic growth of two to three percent would not be sufficient to significantly improve overall living conditions.
According to Racine, regional projects such as the TAPI gas pipeline and the CASA-1000 electricity network remain stalled or are progressing slowly. Insecurity is also preventing the large-scale exploitation of Afghanistan’s mineral resources.
Racine further said that although the Taliban government has nearly eliminated poppy cultivation, reducing the area under cultivation from several hundred thousand hectares to around 10,000 hectares, the policy has created a serious crisis for farmers who depended on poppy cultivation.
He added that following the sharp decline in poppy cultivation, methamphetamine trafficking has increased in Afghanistan and has become one of the growing sectors of the country’s illegal drug trade.
